Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
