Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
